Reason No. 13: Pac-10 not frightful
Weaker conference better or worse for UA?
- CLICK ON THIS TO READ ANTHONY GIMINO’S ANALYSIS OF WHAT SEAN MILLER SAID AT THE PAC-10 PRESS CONFERENCE THURSDAY IN LOS ANGELES
- CLICK ON THIS TO READ ABOUT POTENTIAL RECRUITS OTHER THAN McCALLUM AT McKALE CENTER THIS WEEKEND
STREAK FACT: On the very day the UA’s run of 25 consecutive NCAA tournament appearances started on March 15, 1985, the Internet’s first domain was registered (symbolics.com). As of the last 24 hours, there are 112.7 million active domains on the World Wide Web.By Javier Morales
On the eve of Halloween and one day removed from Pac-10 media day, the timing is appropriate to discuss how scary the Pac-10 will be this year in relation to Arizona’s NCAA tournament aspirations.
It’s about as scary as a trick-or-treater dressed as Tinkerbell, which my daughter will be tomorrow evening. OK, I realize the conference will not be that light in competition (just wanted to let everyone know Mackenzie’s costume).
Judging from the AP Top 25 and ESPN/USA Today Top 25 polls released yesterday, the conference is not getting much respect from national media and coaches (as part of the ESPN poll).
Of course, these polls are subjective — no games have been played yet and March is when the pecking order really matters — but the Pac-10 looks like it has a lot of ground to make up with the five other power conferences. I combined the two polls and applied a point system whereas a conference received points for a corresponding ranking (i.e. the Big 12 got 25 points each from the AP and ESPN/USA Today polls with Kansas No. 1), and this is what I determined is the perceived totem pole of college hoops today:
- Big Ten (139 points): Michigan State, Purdue, Michigan, Ohio State and Minnesota are consensus selections in both rankings, with each ranking the Spartans and Boilermakers in the top 10.
- Big East (124): Arguably the best conference last year has Villanova, West Virginia and UConn among the top 15 teams in each poll.
- Big 12 (115): Kansas and Texas are viewed as Top 5 teams but then the conference drops to Oklahoma in the middle of the rankings and no team after that.
- ACC (91): Another top-heavy conference with defending champion North Carolina in the top 10 along with Duke, but it drops significantly to Georgia Tech (with heralded freshman Derrick Favors, who can be in the NBA now) and Clemson.
- SEC (89): Kentucky’s John Calipari is a significant reason why the Wildcats are a top 5 team and the league has adequate teams in Tennessee and Mississippi State. Not much else.
- Pac-10 (52): Cal, with four senior starters and a veteran coach in Mike Montgomery, should feel slighted as the conference’s top-rated team at No. 12 in the ESPN/USA Today poll. Washington is also in the middle of the rankings. No UCLA. No Arizona.
- Horizon (31): All points coming from Butler, which is rated higher than Cal in both polls (No. 11 AP and No. 10 ESPN/USA Today).
- Atlantic 10 (9): All points from Dayton. Where is Xavier? The Musketeers, if Sean Miller was still there, would certainly be rated in at least the top 15 because they return a strong nucleus, albeit without players like Derrick Brown (NBA) and B.J. Raymond (exhausted eligibility).
With the Pac-10 perceived to be down, couldn’t it be argued that it will adversely affect the Wildcats come March?
Unproven and relative unknown Oregon sophomore center Michael Dunigan is rated by ESPN.com as the Pac-10′s highest rated NBA prospect for 2010Yes, the conference RPI is significant when it comes down to bubble teams for the NCAA tournament selection committee to decide. Put it this way: The UA will not get into March Madness if it finishes 9-9 in the conference’s regular season, like it did a year ago, given the weakness of the league right now.
The best way for the UA to qualify for the NCAA tournament based on conference performance: Finish no worse than fourth with at least an 11-7 record. That is feasible because arguably 14 games are winnable aside from the matchups with Cal and Washington.
This is one man’s guess but the Cats can go at least 8-1 — perhaps 7-2 — at home in the conference this season. That means the UA must win three to four games on the road. Wins on the road last year were hard to come by (other than the Oregon trail, which figures to be more difficult this season), but with Miller’s disciplined approach and Nic Wise’s senior leadership, anything is possible.
The idea of achieving at least an 11-7 conference record is not as daunting this year as it would have been as recently as 2006-07, when three conference teams were ranked among the top 15 in both polls.
When UCLA is perceived to be down — unranked this year because of its youth and rash of injuries — the conference takes a hit. Add to that nine top-flight players gone from last year — including six underclassmen — to the NBA, and you can see why the conference is in rebuilding mode.
Based on talent and experience, the real race is for the No. 3 spot behind Cal and Washington. Arizona, with a senior point guard, prideful returner in Jamelle Horne, talented freshman class and no-nonsense coach in Miller, are as good of a possibility as anyone to claim that spot.
My former colleague Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News cast only Washington (No. 12) and Cal (No. 14) in his AP Top 25 ballot and noted: “Could be a very down year for the league due to the lack of high-end talent.”
The conference is not close to having the type of NBA talent it is accustomed to as of late.
Believe it or not, the conference’s highest rated NBA draft prospect according to ESPN.com is Oregon sophomore center Michael Dunigan at No. 34 overall. UCLA sophomore point guard Malcolm Lee is rated No. 39. Wise is ranked No. 130 overall and 18th among point guards when it comes to NBA potential.
The best news for the Pac-10: No player should leave early for the NBA this year, which means the conference should be stronger next year. The timing is right, with the conference in a lull and the UA in transition, for the Cats to get their fix with 26. Any other year, it might have been much more difficult.
THE TWENTY-SIX REASONS WHY UA WILL GET ITS FIX WITH NO. 26:
12. Hint: More than Santa is coming to town
13. These teams don’t Pac a punch
14. The Fogg will be rolling in
15. A fire is lit under Derrick Williams
16. Players X, Y and Z
17. Don’t tread on McKale Center
18. Re-energized with Miller High Life
19. The Joe Lunardi Factor
20. The New York state of mind
21. Would a marathon runner stop at Mile 25?
22. The Streak Mystique
23. The Olson Presence Factor
24. Not OK with Coach K’s streak
25. Two Wises make for a smart team
26. 2010: The Year We Make ContactFOLLOW US BY CLICKING ON THE LOGOS:
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This entry was posted on Friday, October 30th, 2009 at 12:23 PM and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:38 PM
Excellent read. This series continues to be a treasure, Javier.
With Pac-10 RPI so far down, Arizona had better look good in their non-conference results, maybe needing to go 9-3 with some quality wins. The opportunities will be there, but early in the season, who knows? A lot will be riding on Nic Wise (and MoMo when he fills in at PG) to help the new offensive schemes succeed and the newbies to get the ball where they can do something positive with it. The defense is likely to be good from the start and just keep getting better.
Arizona is my guess to win the Pac-10 tournament. By then, they will be stacked with deep talent and good chemistry, well able to put out great efforts three days in a row and to withstand the vagaries of Pac-10 officiating.
As a final hedge, other Pac-10 teams will also have improved a lot by March (though I don’t think Cal so much), so Arizona tournament wins against the best conference foes may be well appreciated in case UA would lose in the finals and be sitting on the bubble at that point — a last chance to impress.
So that’s the fall-back path(s) to keep the streak alive, to go along with the scenario you analyzed above. Bear Down!
October 30th, 2009 at 7:57 PM
Pop psychology and judgment from someone calling himself the underscore dude?…
Interesting.
“…Believe it or not, the conference’s highest rated NBA draft prospect according to ESPN.com is Oregon sophomore center Michael Dunigan at No. 34 overall. UCLA sophomore point guard Malcolm Lee is rated No. 39. Wise is ranked No. 130 overall and 18th among point guards when it comes to NBA potential…”
Javier, this is brilliant.
If I’m Coach Miller I make sure this snippet is carried by Horne and Wise everywhere they go.
Because if Jamelle and Nic weren’t feeling it before, they’re sure to be feeling it now.
We’ve all seen Dunigan play and so it’s doubtful that even Oregon believes what ESPN says it believes about Michael.
JM, you hit the nail right on the head.
A Horne with any kind of pride, a junior Jamelle who’s been through the battles and has grown, takes this assessment of PAC-10 big men to heart and has a monster year.
And can you imagine what Wise must be thinking?
A sophomore Malcolm Lee, like so many privileged Bruins before him, simply waltzes into a charm, a gift of a situation in Westwood and somehow finds himself rated the 38th highest NBA prospect in the eyes of some experts.
What would you think if you were playing for your fourth college coach in as many years, if you were shunned by the U.S. Selection Committe of the World University Games and told you weren’t good enough, if you’ve had to play through more injuries than Lee has headbands, if you came back home to your school and team, leaving sure money behind, to keep the program set for the future, if you then woke up on Thursday, October 29, 2009, to find that the only thing between you and what you know is yours now is some young – real young – guy named Malcolm?
Malcolm in the middle from UCLA.
This is great.
Can hardly wait.
October 30th, 2009 at 10:58 PM
I’m nit-picking here, but the eve of halloween is a funny thing to say. Halloween is already the eve of All Halllows’. It’s like saying the eve of christmas eve. Sorry Javier, i’ll try and stick to basketball. Great stuff, as always.
October 31st, 2009 at 1:38 AM
Good point chicago. Love it when responses are educational. You’re right. Halloween is really All Hallows Eve.