"Tell them … tell the team to bear down"

We know ESPN analyst Andy Katz continued his onslaught against Arizona’s hopes for landing a high-level coach Saturday, insinuating it does not matter one bit that Pitt’s Jamie Dixon has West coast roots when it comes to where he wants to coach.

Katz went so far as to say that Dixon “remembers more Big East games than Pac-10 ones.” We should hope so. He’s coached at Pitt the last decade, the first three as an assistant to Ben Howland, who returned home to L.A. as UCLA’s coach.

Andy, we’re not writing here that you’re wrong because we don’t know, to be honest. We don’t live inside of Dixon’s head, but neither do you. We are not even insisting here that Dixon should leave the Pitt family, which he certainly loves and respects. All Arizona followers look at Dixon’s situation and applaud how the Pitt administration has fostered the young 43-year-old coach through some difficult times, namely his sister Maggie’s untimely death three years ago.

Tucsonans know a thing or two about family and how that impacts college basketball. They observed the relationship between Bobbi and Lute Olson and how that translated to swaying quality kids to be part of the program. They know that Lute turned to Bobbi for the final approval on a recruit and how she was a second mother to the Wildcats.

So, Andy, before you start to shake your head and say, “Here we go, another clouded, biased view from a ‘perceived’ higher-profile program,” just hear us out: All we are saying is give Dixon a try.

If Arizona athletic director Jim Livengood has not done so already, he should try to contact Dixon to gauge what kind of interest Dixon might have in coaching one of the top 10 overall programs in the country.

Livengood should do this even though he might have somebody else in mind. Otherwise, he would do himself and the Arizona basketball program a disservice.

Livengood had some interesting quotes in a column written by The Arizona Daily Star’s Greg Hansen after the Wildcats’ loss to Louisville on Friday. Essentially, Livengood said that the official interviewing and contract negotiation process starts now with the UA season over and that his job is to get it right without rushing.

He went on to tell Hansen, “It’s not going to be a case of where everybody raises his hands and says, ‘Oh, I wanted that guy, too.’ ”

That tells us that Livengood has his sights set on a candidate and that coach is not near the top of the list for Kentucky, Virginia and Georgia. So without the competition comes the opportunity for him to take a couple of days to assess all of the candidates available. That assessment should include Dixon if Livengood is serious about making the right hire after covering all his bases.

Andy, you make the point that Dixon and Villanova’s Jay Wright can become the face of the Big East when Jim Calhoun and Jim Boeheim pass the torch. It is our biased view that Dixon vs. Howland, two buddies coaching for supremacy in the Pac-10 makes for a much more interesting story.

You also forgot about Rick Pitino in the Big East. You must think the nomad coach will not be around for long. That’s a topic for a different blog post.

If you want to stress family and how important it is for Dixon to stay in Pittsburgh because of that, how can you ignore the fact, Andy, that Dixon’s father takes a train infrequently from his L.A. home to see his son coach on the East coast? Do you know that Tucson is a five-hour drive from L.A. and that the Wildcats play a minimum of three games in southern California each year (at UCLA and USC and the first game of the Pac-10 tournament)?

Also, where is a preferred retirement destination: Tucson or Pittsburgh? Dixon’s father can stick around for a while without having to catch the next train for a cross-country trip back home.

So, Andy, before you write another notes column that suggests the UA would be better off going after Randy Bennett of St. Mary’s, despite Bennett’s unattractive NCAA resume, all we are saying is Livengood should give Dixon a try.

Is that too much to ask?

We should know by next week.

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While the UA’s chances of hiring Jamie Dixon dim more with each Pitt win, its potentially faint hopes of landing either Rick Pitino or Tom Izzo flickered like a flame trying to stay lit Thursday.

Dixon has coached Pitt to its first Elite Eight appearance in school history since the NCAA tournament field expanded to 64 teams in 1985. These are tantalizing unchartered waters for the Panthers, which means Dixon has reach celebrity status in Pittsburgh.

The only chance he considers an offer from Jim Livengood now is if Pitt suffers a lopsided loss in the Elite Eight. That’s not going to happen.

Meanwhile, Pitino and Izzo did their best two-step when asked about their possible interest in another job, including the Arizona opening, during Thursday’s press conference sessions.

Pitino could have shut the door on a future at Arizona by simply saying “no” when asked if he had any interest in the job. But he left the door open with a vague answer that included: “Any time a coach says he’s not interested in a job, he’s dead interested in a job.”

Pitino better hope his team plays Friday night the same way he played on his words Thursday.

“All I can tell you is for eight years I’ve given every ounce I’ve had to the University of Louisville. I will continue to do that.” Pitino continued. “I can poke fun and make all the jokes in the world, but there’s no truth. Anybody today can go on a message board. Anybody today can put anything out there they want – truth or untruth. All I can tell you is that I’ve lived and died with Louisville for eight years.

“I’ve heard it about Kentucky and Billy (Gillispie). The only job I can be honest with you, the only job I’ve thought about for a 24-hour period since I’ve been at the University of Louisville was Providence last year. I sat down, the athletic director at the University of Louisville (former NAU athletic director Tom Jurich), (who) is one of my closest friends. I sat down with him, I said, because of the personal things I went through at Providence, I wanted to sit down and talk with them about the job to see if I did want to come back because of personal reasons that were very deep to me. I sat down with them, talked to them a bit, and realized Louisville was the place for me. Outside of that, for eight years, I haven’t thought about any job except the University of Louisville, and that’s answering you the honest way.”

A note about Jurich, who also attended NAU: Pitino has said before that he will coach at Louisville as long as Jurich is there. Jurich is signed through 2012, perhaps about the time Livengood might consider retirement. Livengood is 65 and this is likely his last signature manuever for the UA.

Izzo, meanwhile, was asked at his press conference at Indianapolis about how he approaches questions about his interest in other jobs.

“I would say that anybody that answers them that they have no interest in anything, that’s insane, because nobody else in America would ever feel that way” Izzo said. “And yet the best way I can answer it is, you know, I probably would never say never.

“But I would say this: I am so happy where I’m at. I have a wife and kids. My wife has a lot of family where I’m at. I have goals still of what I want to achieve at Michigan State. They have not been achieved. I’d like to leave the place not only, when I’m done, better than I got it, but I’d like to leave it with a footprint that hopefully will last many decades after.

“So there’s still things we have to accomplish. I’m just going to keep doing my job and get through and think it’s flattering if a job here or there, if somebody thinks we’re doing the right things, that there’s interest. But I’ve been taken very well care of at Michigan State. I have as good a facilities as anybody in the country. I get paid more than fairly. I’ve got goals and objectives yet to fulfill. I would just say that for me ‘never’ just means … I think it’s crazy when people say that. But for me, I’m very happy where I’m at.”

Izzo has stated before that he wants to win Michigan State’s third national championship in school history before thinking about other coaching possibilities, including the possibility of coaching in the NBA. The Spartans have two titles, one under the direction of Izzo in 2000 and the other with Jud Heathcote and Magic Johnson doing the trick in 1979.

Notable:

• Xavier’s Sean Miller is now available for Livengood to interview if the UA loses Friday night. Villanova’s Jay Wright, increasingly becoming a UA fan favorite, is a game away from his first Final Four after annhilating Mike Krzyzewski and Duke, but he must beat Dixon first. The loser of that Villanova-Pitt game should be contacted by Livengood to gauge interest, although like I wrote earlier it will be difficult to pry Dixon away from Pitt now.
• Another year has come and another year has gone without a national title for Memphis coach John Calipari. Expect the rumors of him going to Kentucky to heat up if Gillispie is fired as has been reported in Lexington. ESPN radio, however, reported on Thursday that Kentucky will go full bore after Florida’s Billy Donovan. The network suggested that VCU coach Anthony Grant is putting Alabama on hold waiting to see if Donovan leaves, so he can take over at Florida, where he was an assistant for 10 years.
• USA Today is reporting that speculation about Pitino coaching Arizona has “gained steam” with some of the Wildcats. “It’s kind of like a rehearsal,” Zane Johnson is quoted as saying by The Louisville Courier-Journal. “If Coach Pitino is our coach next year, I guess we’re going to have to start getting used to what he’s bringing to the table.”
  If I could tell Johnson one thing, it would be: Please concentrate on your game, not about Pitino. Please.

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It’s interesting that Forbes magazine, certainly qualified to rank the most lucrative college basketball programs, ranked its opinion of the top 10 coaches and it left Louisville’s Rick Pitino out of that group.

UConn’s Jim Calhoun and Syracuse’s Jim Boeheim were also omitted. The magazine, which ranks North Carolina’s Roy Williams as the No. 1 coach in America, incredibly includes Gonzaga’s Mark Few (No. 8), Wisconsin’s Bo Ryan (No. 9), and Texas’ Rick Barnes (No. 10).

The magazine identified in its analysis the country’s best college basketball coaches by measuring recruiting class rank, win-loss percentage, and most importantly, NCAA Tournament invites, Final Four trips and championships. Where the magazine’s findings are skewed: It looked at all major college coaches in these five categories going back only four years, the typical matriculation period for a college student.

We all know a highly-talented four-year player these days is becoming the exception rather than the norm. Those players usually last a season or two before making millions in the NBA.

Any ranking that does not have John Calipari as the No. 1 coach in America is not worth reading. Calipari is ranked No. 7 in the Forbes’ poll. Another potential UA candidate listed by Forbes is Michigan State’s Tom Izzo at No. 6.

Pitt’s Jamie Dixon is also not ranked despite compiling the most victories in college basketball history by a coach in his first six years in his career.

On the surface, little logic exists for Rick Pitino or an established coach (i.e. Tom Izzo and John Calipari) to leave their respective schools. Why should they leave something good, really?

It’s not a question of why in the heck would they leave for Arizona? Arizona? That argument doesn’t wash with me and probably 99 percent of the coaches in Division I basketball if you polled them.

Let’s not forget that Arizona is not a program of the likes of Houston, which dropped like a thud after the Phi Slamma Jamma days. The Wildcats have the resources, the financial strength, and the name now to keep going what Olson started a quarter-century ago. The Wildats have withstood the test of time and trouble, evidenced by the UA being able to make the NCAA tournament the last two years and a Sweet Sixteen this year.

Need I remind you that Arizona is only two years removed from the record of 27 consecutive NCAA tournament appearances held by North Carolina? Who would have thought Arizona would rival North Carolina for that record? For any record? Arizona? I’m using the voice Allen Iverson used when he said, “Practice? We’re talking about practice. Practice?”

Arizona?

That’s the voice I’m hearing from people of the likes of Andy Katz, Seth Davis and some bloggers.

OK, let’s get back to Logic 101 here.

If the UA is to “fall” like Katz says to Reggie Theus, why haven’t they signed Theus yet? He is not coaching anywhere. What does common sense tell you?

This tells me, I don’t know about you, that Jim Livengood has his eyes set on a bigger prize. And that prize is still coaching. And from what sources have told me, those close to the program and those who have been recently involved with it, an informal agreement between both parties has been reached.

Further stressing that Livengood is holding out for someone more qualified than Theus: Why hasn’t the UA sought permission to speak yet with Anthony Grant, who is a legitimate star on the rise in the coaching profession? Alabama newspapers are reporting that VCU has allowed the Crimson Tide to speak to Grant. No word about Arizona being in the picture at all.

Who do you think the high-paying boosters who spend more than $45,000 for courtside seats want to see on the UA bench if it came down to Theus and Grant?

To wit: This is Livengood’s most important hire in his career. He will likely be leaving the UA within five years because he is 65. Do you think he wants to leave a legacy behind by hiring Theus instead of a coach with a more detailed NCAA tournament background?

While I think it’s true that it does not make much sense for Pitino, Izzo or Calipari to leave their respective situations, I also think coaching at Arizona for any of them or Jamie Dixon would not be a case of: “Wow, how dumb can they be? Coaching Arizona? Arizona?”

I sincerely believe that Livengood’s list includes Sean Miller of Xavier and Mark Few of Gonzaga. So why does Katz throw out a name like Randy Bennett? I’ll tell you why: to try to put Arizona fans in their place because they think they can get a Pitino, Calipari or Izzo.

Memo to Katz: Forbes magazine just came out with their second annual ranking of the most lucrative college basketball programs and Arizona is still in the top 10, at No. 6, despite the Wildcats’ troubles the last couple of years. The UA’s value is $21 million and its operating income is $12 million, according to Forbes.

It’s true that Arizona dropped from last year’s ranking of No. 4. But Duke also dropped from No. 5 to No. 8. And Indiana, which finished 6-25 and was embroiled in all the Kelvin Sampson mess, went from No. 6 to No. 4 because of Tom Crean’s hire. I’m inclined to believe Arizona will take the same path as Indiana after it hires its next coach and generates excitement from its fans.

Logic 101: The most significant goal for Livengood is to keep the money machine going, and he will have a very hard time doing that with Theus and Bennett.

We’re talking about Arizona here. Yes, Arizona without the question mark.

In this day and age, when unemployment is at record numbers and economic times are tough, how can a university justify paying a coach it might fire $6 million as a buyout? That’s the figure that was announced recently by ESPN if Kentucky decides to fire Billy Gillispie before his contract expires.

Easy answer: Where money flows, there’s no stopping the tide of public sentiment (or more appropriately, booster sentiment).

Gillispie, who reportedly is signed through the 2013-14 season with a base salary of $2.3 million a year, is under fire in Lexington because the Wildcats failed to reach the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1991 (the last season UK served an NCAA probation for recruiting violations and altering academic grades of its players).

The fact of the matter is athletic departments are willing to take a financial risk of buying out a coach’s contract if it means that it will keep its high-paying boosters in tow by removing the unwanted coach. Don’t doubt for a second that Kentucky’s high spenders will pay for some or all of that $6 million to get Gillispie out of Lexington.

The financially strong programs, such as those at Kentucky and Arizona, can afford to make expensive decisions because of their booster base. Bank on this: Suns owner Robert Sarver and Angels owner Arte Moreno, both billionaires and supportive of their alma mater’s athletic department, have likely assured Jim Livengood that they can be of assistance if called upon.

Where Moreno and Sarver, and other boosters from the UA’s Rebounders Club, come into play: The UA will likely have to pay a hefty buyout amount to the school that currently employs its next coach. Generally, a university includes in its contract language that if the coach leaves before his contract expires he and his new employer must pay a certain buyout amount.

CBS college hoops analyst Seth Davis reported recently that Jamie Dixon’s buyout is “extremely expensive” if he leaves the Panthers before his contract expires in 2015-2016 (he reportedly earns a base salary of $1.5 million a year). The buyout amount has never been disclosed by Pitt and no media outlet has reported the exact figure.

If Michigan coach John Beilein must pay his former employer West Virginia $2.5 million as a buyout amount, Dixon and his new employer will probably have to fork over a similar amount.

UA president Robert Shelton and Livengood are extemely intelligent. I am certain that they have put into motion Sarver or Moreno or perhaps another wealthy booster to personally call a prospect like Dixon or Dixon’s attorney to assure them that they do not have to worry about paying out of pocket for a buyout expense.

I know one rumor exists that Moreno has already personally talked to Rick Pitino. If that’s the case, I’m certain their discussion was not only about horse racing. Pitino’s buyout is likely in the same bracket of Kentucky’s buyout with Gillispie. Louisville forced the legendary Denny Crum out in 2001 to land Pitino and was forced to pay Crum a buyout of $7 million.

It’s the ultimate case of you get what you pay for. If Livengood is serious about maintaining the UA’s status as one of the elite programs in the nation in terms of its revenue, he must convince Shelton and the likes of Sarver and Moreno to open up their wallets to hire somebody like Dixon, Pitino, John Calipari and Tom Izzo. From the information I’ve gathered, I have a strong feeling Shelton, Sarver, Moreno and Co., are firmly committed to make that happen.

One of our loyal contributors, Jeremy, made a very legitimate post March 17 stating that Arizona athletic director Jim Livengood should not be too hasty about hiring his new coach. He should wait instead on his top candidates to decide on his offer before pouncing on an opportunity for a qualified, but lower-profile, coach who exits the NCAA tourney in the early rounds.

Former UA athletic director Cedric Dempsey set up an interview with Lute Olson a day after Iowa lost to Villanova in a 1983 Sweet 16 game. Dempsey got Olson to sign on the dotted line just three days later.

Should Livengood take that immediate-action approach? Let’s say, for example, Gonzaga’s Mark Few gets upset in the second round by Illinois, yet Rick Pitino, Jamie Dixon, and Tom Izzo are still coaching their respective teams in the NCAA tournament. Should Livengood nail down a deal with Few immediately, securing a quality coach, or should he wait and see if Dixon, Pitino or Izzo will say yes even after a Final Four appearance?

(By the way, I’m purposely leaving John Calipari out of the discussion because I believe he is staying put. Why would he be doing all this campaigning for Memphis’ status among the elite, and attract a top nationally-ranked recruiting class, and then abruptly leave? I don’t see that happening, sorry to say.)

Is Livengood ready to take the risk of making a potentially strong candidate wait, such as VCU’s Anthony Grant or Tennessee’s Bruce Pearl if their teams lose in the first couple of rounds? What if Dixon, Izzo and Pitino ultimately say no? Will Grant still be available by that time? Will Few or Pearl renegotiate a contract with their existing school in the interim, thereby shutting the UA out of its top 5 or 6 choices?

On the flipside, what if Dixon, Izzo or Pitino say yes after Livengood waits to the bitter end?

This month Livengood will certainly earn his paycheck. That churning sound is Livengood’s stomach.

Of course, the best-case scenario for Arizona is that Dixon, Izzo or Pitino get upset no later than the Sweet 16. That can certainly speed up the process but it’s unlikely all will exit by that time. Pitino and Dixon have a decent path to the Final Four ahead of them.

If you were Livengood, what would you do? Make potential candidates like Few, Pearl or Grant wait in favor of seeing what Dixon, Izzo or Pitino will decide? Or do you jump at the opportunity to hire a quality coach, thereby avoiding a chance of getting shut out on all fronts?

Times are certainly different with the UA program, 2009 vs. 1983. Waiting for Rollie Massimino or Gene Bartow is certainly different than holding your breath for Pitino, Izzo or Dixon (although Massimino’s miracle national title with Villanova occurred two years after Dempsey decided on immediately snatching Olson).

The Wildcats now have more image power that creates a better opportunity to land the best rather than settle for less no matter the circumstance.

Looking back on the developments that led to Olson’s hiring, the most important game in Arizona basketball history did not even involve the Wildcats. It has to be that loss by Iowa to Villanova. If the Hawkeyes scored one more basket and won that game, the fortunes of Arizona basketball the last quarter-century could be entirely different.

To the rest of the basketball world, North Carolina State’s stunning upset over Houston’s Phi Slamma Jamma in the 1983 NCAA title game, was paramount. However, in Tucson, the city was still buzzing following the hire earlier that week of a coach from Iowa, who dared to take over a Wildcat program that had just finished 4-24.

Lute Olson was hired by former UA athletic director Cedric Dempsey only three days after the Hawkeyes lost to Villanova in the Sweet 16 in late March 1983. Now, 26 years later, including an unthinkable 25-year NCAA tourney streak started by Olson a year after his hire, it is Jim Livengood’s turn to deal a winning hand.

It took Dempsey only three days to convince Olson to come to Arizona in the darkest age of Wildcat hoops. The UA is struggling once more, albeit not badly enough to miss the NCAA tournament. How long will it take Livengood to get his man after that coach’s team plays its last game in this year’s NCAA tournament, which starts Thursday?

Wonder what Livengood’s blood-pressure reading is right about now.

Will Livengood be as zealous as Dempsey, who met with Olson in Kansas City just a day after Iowa lost there to Villanova? He definitely should take that same approach, for two reasons: (1) It will show the candidate that Arizona is serious about him, and (2) it won’t allow other potential schools with openings (Virginia, Alabama and Georgia at the moment) to get an inside track.

Here is a brief synopsis of potential UA coaching candidates and their NCAA tournament outlook (as written before, it is likely that a coach whose team advances to the Final Four will turn into a longshot):

MIDWEST REGION
• Rick Pitino, Louisville. Bad news for UA fans: The hottest team in the land has a relatively easy path to Detroit for the Final Four. The Cardinals can score but their strength might be their defense, limiting opponents to less than 40 percent field-goal shooting and only 31 percent from three-point range. Potential obstacles: Wake Forest or a newly-confident Arizona team in the Sweet 16 and Michigan State in the Elite Eight. Prediction: Louisville will make this Pitino’s sixth Final Four appearance, and unfortunately for UA fans, he will be wearing that Colonel Sanders suit again next year in Louisville.
• Tom Izzo, Michigan State. Remember the days when the UA went eight or nine capable players deep? That’s the luxury Izzo has developed with the Spartans. Potential obstacles: Another hot (and now entirely healthy) team in USC in the second round and most likely West Virginia in the Sweet 16 (if the Mountaineers top Kansas in the second round). Louisville looms in the Elite Eight. Prediction: Livengood could come calling on Izzo the second week of the tournament but it’s hard to believe Izzo will make an immedate decision like Olson did before heading to Arizona. Izzo is from Michigan and has coached the last two decades at East Lansing, the last 14 as head coach. Livengood might have to continue looking while waiting on Izzo if the coach has an early exit.

WEST

• John Calipari, Memphis. The Tigers in the weak Conference USA are very similar to Olson’s UA teams that ran roughshod over the abysmal Pac-10 in the late 1980s. Olson stuck around to prove Arizona’s worth. Calipari, I hate to say it, is stubborn enough to stay in Memphis to show the Tigers can win a national title. Potential obstacles: If California has a hot shooting night in a second-round matchup, watch out, but this is Calipari’s best defensive team. The only competition will likely come from UConn in the Elite Eight. Memphis will likely lose that matchup. Prediction: I believe, sadly, that Calipari is going nowhere. He is on a crusade for Memphis basketball.

  EAST
  

• Jamie Dixon, Pitt. It’s hard to contest the Panthers’ frontcourt tandem of Sam Young and DeJuan Blair, but NCAA tournaments are won with a solid backcourt. The Panthers are not bad there either. Point guard Levance Fields is not a scorer but he has a better than 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Potential obstacles: How about this one? Dixon and another leading candidate, Tennessee’s Bruce Pearl meeting in the second round. The loser could be the one headed to Tucson, much like the losing coach between Iowa and Villanova (Olson vs. Rollie Massimino) was swayed by Dempsey more than two decades ago. Dempsey would have interviewed Massimino had Villanova lost. Pitt, which has the discipline and defense to throw Tennessee out of whack, has a golden road to Detroit from there. Prediction: I don’t see a team in Pitt’s bracket, including Duke, that could keep it from Detroit. You know what that can potentially mean.
  

• Bruce Pearl, Tennessee. The most charismatic coach in the field could possibly recruit more highly-touted players than Olson to Tucson, but will he keep them in line and make them mature? Potential obstacles: If the Vols even survive the first-round game against Oklahoma State it might be a shocker. Oklahoma State can score (fourth in the nation) under Pitino protege Travis Ford and Tennessee is lacking on defense. Prediction: If Livengood is serious about landing Pearl, who this time last year was Public Figure No. 1 of the NCAA tournament before it started, he better book a flight to Dayton, Ohio, rather than be with the UA in Miami this weekend.
  

• Sean Miller, Xavier. A longshot in the UA coaching search has a realistic chance of facing Dixon and Pitt in the Sweet 16, setting up another meeting between two potential candidates. If you love defense, you’ll love Miller’s team. Opponents are shooting only an amazing 37.4 percent from the floor. Potential obstacles: Florida State could present a problem in the second round, but I believe Pitt will prove to be too much in the Sweet 16 in Boston. Prediction: Miller might already be off Livengood’s board, but he will be coaching at a major program soon and be a success.
  

• Anthony Grant, VCU. Want to know how good Grant really is? Ask Florida coach Billy Donovan, who has struggled without his former assistant for 10 years. Grant helped recruit and coach the talent that helped the Gators win consecutive NCAA titles in 2006 and 2007. Florida in the last two years has been relegated to the NIT. Grant, meanwhile, has achieved 20-plus victory seasons in his three years at VCU, and this is his second NCAA tournament appearance there. Potential obstacles: UCLA will not be the pushover the East Coast media thinks it will be against VCU in the first round, but I can see this being a practical home game in Philadelphia for the Rams. VCU will embody the loveable underdog role Gonzaga had before it made it big. VCU, however, will turn into a road team against Villanova in the second round and that’s where it might turn ugly. Prediction: The news Monday that Virginia coach Dave Leitao resigned can figure into the Anthony Grant Sweepstakes – Georgia and Alabama are also in pursuit. But if given the chance to decide, it’s a no-brainer for Grant to pick Arizona over Virginia, Alabama or Georgia. The Cavaliers, Tide and Bulldogs simply don’t rate with the UA’s program in terms of recruiting and national title possibilities.
  

• Jay Wright, Villanova. Perhaps even more of a longshot than Xavier’s Miller, Wright is an Olson look-a-like with Cary Grant looks (I know Dick Vitale referred to Olson as the Cary Grant of college hoops, so I apologize). But more than that, Wright’s teams are guard-oriented, very similar to Olson’s vintage teams. Potential obstacles: UCLA or VCU in the second round will be a tough test for Villanova, even if the game will be played in its backyard. Villanova can certainly beat Duke in Boston in the Sweet 16 and face Big East rival Pitt in the Elite Eight. Prediction: If Livengood does not land his coach by then, will he be in attendance at that Pitt-Villanova game in the Elite Eight? Loser, again, heads to Arizona? Chances are the coaching search won’t last that long, but you never know.
  

• Tubby Smith, Minnesota. Nobody in Tucson is talking about Smith, which is hard to believe because he has won a national title with Kentucky. He has the charisma that can win over recruits and their parents in the living room, but has he elevated Minnesota high enough to warrant a look? Potential obstacles: The Golden Gophers can upset Texas, which struggled the second half of the year, but there is no way they beat Duke in the second round in Greensboro, N.C. Prediction: Smith’s moniker of “Ten-Loss Tubby” at Kentucky hurts his image in the eyes of the UA’s high-paying boosters. Not sure if Livengood wants to go there.
  
  SOUTH
  

• Brad Stevens, Butler. Another in the long-shot category, Stevens likely needs more seasoning before he lands a major program. He is a legitimate national coach of the year candidate, however, after losing his senior-laden lineup last year and winning just the same this year with freshmen and sophomores. Potential obstacles: Not sure if Butler can handle LSU’s athleticism in a first-round matchup. Doesn’t matter. Butler will not beat North Carolina in a potential second-round meeting in Greensboro. Prediction: Stevens will head home to stay after an early exit. Check back this time next year. He will be lured away, guaranteed, to a top 20 program.
  

• Mark Few, Gonzaga. Few is the mystery candidate for Arizona. I wouldn’t be surprised if he comes to Tucson. I wouldn’t be surprised as well if he retires at Gonzaga. In a reverse role of other leading candidates, it might do Few some good for Gonzaga to reach the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight before gaining serious attention from Arizona. Few has not taken the Zags beyond the Sweet 16 in his nine previous tournament appearances. Potential obstacles: Illinois or Western Kentucky in the second round will not be easy. If the Zags happen to advance past that round, the road stops there because it would likely play North Carolina in the Sweet 16. Prediction: I still believe that if Oregon fails to rebound from a disastrous year due to inexperience, Few would be a better fit in Eugene after next season.

These names are most likely on Livengood’s short list.

It is probably time to say good bye to the chances of UNLV coach Lon Kruger, Baylor coach Scott Drew and St. Mary’s coach Randy Bennett because they are not headed to the Big Dance, where they would be more in the public eye leading up to Livengood’s hiring. Remember, Livengood must hit a home run in the eyes of the UA’s big-spending boosters.

Chances are if Dixon reaches the Final Four or if Izzo rejects the offer after an early exit, Livengood will have to instead hit a double and try to stretch it to a triple. That would translate to either Pearl, Grant or Few, with Wright and Miller as outside chances. The more I think about it, the more it looks like Grant will be a solid choice for Livengood if the big-name possibilities do not pan out.